I’m probably overly sensitive to the overwhelmingly ain’t gonna happen stuff happening because of all the hours I spent investigating them when they happened. Black swans are just things that people didn’t think of because they stopped at the simplest thing. Certainly what you wrote is the best way to bet, but I would have written “all the evidence points to” as “all the existing known evidence points to”

Retired and living my golden years in a world full of angry people.

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